Connected to the Dollars

James Burke is know for his late 1970's show called Connections in which he shows how unrelated events come together for something entirely new. Think about the multitude of different technologies that went into the first automobiles--just the marriage of refining oil into gasoline and metal casting for the modern internal combustion engine is a miracle.



Our story will start in fall of 1966 with the debut of both Star Trek showing how advance technology would change the world and Joe Paterno who would show how a guy from Brooklyn could change college football. James T. Kirk when facing a dilemma would consult either the very local Mr. Spook or the mechanical female voice of the computer. Captain Kirk would then ignore good sound advice, doing something rash, make out with a green (1960’s) space babe, and come out smelling like a rose. Coach Paterno has also been know to act rashly with a variety of smells as a result. Just this week Joe was quoted as saying, "I've tried to talk to the Big Ten people about, 'Let's get a 12th team -- Syracuse, Rutgers, Pitt -- we could have a little bit of a playoff.'" http://sports.espn.go.com/ncf/news/story?id=4118848



Spike TV started in 1983 as The Nashville Network, morphing into The National Network before becoming testosterone focused channel it is today. Other organizations evolve overtime in an attempt to stay relevant; the March of Dime now devoted to preventing birth defect began life with the task of curing polio repurposing itself to stay alive. The Big Ten and the Big Ten Network will need to keep evolving in the constantly changing environment of college sports.



This blog recognized early the potential power of the Big Ten Network and the change that this could bring to the college football landscape. While Joe was looking at the practical idea of a championship game, the more profitable plan would be to add the right team to the Big Ten to boost the dollars beyond what the SEC is currently raking in. Paterno looked to his past a rashly suggested three east coast teams two of which could add the populace New York City metro TV market to the BTN footprint (and the associated dollars). Mr. Spock would look at the numbers and look to push BTN national in one fell swoop by taking another run at adding Notre Dame to the Big Ten.



South Bend, the home to Studebaker (the late car maker) and Notre Dame is the final piece to our puzzle. Those that say, “Notre Dame will never join a conference.” might be the same that said, “GM will never file for bankruptcy.” With the NBC contract running out in 2015 and the range into at which schedules are made BTN might want to be looking that far into the future and make a rash Kirk like move. In one move BTN could transform itself and the college football landscape.

Canary In the Mine

Is there such phenomenon as fan fatigue? Anyone who has taken an economics class is familiar with the concept of the law of diminishing return. At a certain point additional input will not result in additional output. A simple why to look at the issue is that you could put five grains of wheat in a pot and get five nice plants but would have little success if you put 500 or 5,000 grains in that limited space.

Much has been made this week of the prices that Orange Bowl tickets are selling for and more specifically the weak demand on the part of Virginia Tech fans. Usually VT fans are among the most loyal. Loyal in this case comes with the expectation that they will open their wallets and buy. Unfortunately fans cannot afford the show their passion with dollars becoming increasing limited. Looking at the rear view mirror, the ACC Championship Game and the lack of attendance may have been the canary in the mine telling us that all is not right in the land of college football. Further that the Orange Bowl may be a preview of a new reality where the ability of fans to fund ever more expensive programs.

There will be those that will look recession proof as the growing continue be it a greatly reduced pace. But give the grimness of the current economic landscape we could see first a reduction in the “ESPN-make a Bowl” games followed by programs having to do more with less and even some schools dropping out of the FBS group.



Link to video

Perhaps on the part of VT fans their may be some fatigue of making the trip to Miami for a second straight year coupled with the knowledge that they may not be the best team in the ACC (Georgia Tech is ranked much higher) and the they are played the very unsexy University of Cincinnati Beatcats. Bearcats fans are at least excited by the novelty of attending a BCS game but are still considered by footballs old money are unworthy of a serious bowl game.

Yes, Ohio, it’s not just the school in Columbus that can play its way into the Bowl Championship Series – and the Bearcats can’t wait to begin using that as a selling point to recruits. So sometime Friday, a box of Orange Bowl knickknacks will arrive in Cincinnati, visual evidence of the Bearcats’ breakout season that landed them in a BCS game for the first time.

For more information about bowl ticket prices check out the CNBC coverage.

People the current economic environment is uglier than anything since the 1970's (and into the early 80's), the readjustment in the larger economy will trickle down to college football. Where will your team be when the dust clears?

12/22--Addendum: as Scott Armstrong points out the ticket is the cheap part of the bowl experience.

Not Piling On

You notice the failings or silliness of your close neighbors more than that bunch down to the street. Given the proximity of the University of Maryland their silliness is not any worse than other major program just easier to see. That explained, Coach Friedgen et al. have a promotional tool called Terrapins Rising which is moving into its second season as chronicle of the team.

A couple of observations about the recent Baltimore Sun article:

The school says it has resisted the impulse to delete scenes such as one last year in which coach Ralph Friedgen chastised a complaining player by snapping: "This is football, son. Not soccer." Edgy stuff? Play fill in the blank with the new offend no one perspective on the world, “This is football, son. Not ______________.” What if coach had said field hockey? Yes, this would have moved into the realm of sexism and the scene would have deleted.


The show cost $50,000 which is underwritten by Under Armour and is widely shown on regional sports channels (you have to fill the time up with something) and is seen as a recruiting promotional tool by the program. Viewing is restricted to those 25-30 recruits, devout fans, and those that have already mastered the secrets of real estate riches sporting rock hard abs.

Gingerbread Gone Bad

In the mid-1970’s the neighbors needed a replacement for their pale yellow Ford Fairlane and purchased a two door base model Ford Fairmont. Back then base was the ultimate stripper with minimal wheel covers, vinyl seat covers, no A/C. The only options on this car were an automatic transmission and an AM radio. The Fairmont could be dressed up fitting into a wide variety of buyers needs with a different grill, fake wood on the wagon and even the almost sporty/sexy looking Futura. But it was still the same underneath, a good but not outstanding car. The late model Kia sedans might be the best modern equivalent which are all but invisible on the road.



Then in 1981 Ford married the Fairmont and the legendary Thunderbird nameplate. But the basic Fairmont would not do and the budget would not allow expensive new sheet metal so the solution was to hang decorations on the car. Sometimes referred to as “gingerbread,” the automotive version of the prosthetics used by actors and as the picture below shows the effect was an ugly ungainly near monster or the “What were they thinking?” A car only a bean-counter could love. Lack the commitment of sufficient work and resources Ford just dressed it and hoped it would sell.

ESPN is doing the same with the coverage of college football. At the core is a good product with many times great and genuine reality TV (rather than the pasted together stuff). The drama of a competitive game is as gripping and as any entertainment on the planet. Bristol, however, lacks confidence in the basic product so they add features to the game to keep you from changing the channel. Notice that these features are often scheduled in the second half and at times take priority over the actual game. Depending on the situation various visitors are in the booth, on the phone or on the sidelines. These are the television version of having a padded vinyl roof as they add nothing of real value to the product.

Although the source eludes me, it once reported that the average viewer of a college football game tunes in for 20 or 30 minutes. This means that ESPN is looking for ways to increase the “grazing” viewer tune in time if only by 5 or 10 minutes by having a three ring circus with the scores at the bottom of the screen, Erin interviewing Ray Lewis, and the game. Add to this the booth talent weaving in, sometimes clumsily, stories about the players. Notive that they will repeat these stories during the game and recycle them for the next game as they assume you are watching with passion for one of the teams or are changing the channel soon and not really paying attention.



Funny thing about the addition of the “gingerbread” to the Thunderbird, not only did it looking silly coming off the production line it looked sad several years later as the over dressed look went out of fashion and pathetic when the plastic add-ons fall off.

Getting to the Core

You have to admire good PR.
The art is to get your message out for free with the bonus being that the media positions your message not as an advertisement but as important information. TicketCity.com scored a nice little coup when they published a list of the most expensive tickets in college football. Topping the list is the Notre Dame at Penn State game where someone is asking $1100 for a ticket. While neither team is in the top 10, the fan support/interest is so strong as to push ticket prices through the roof.

Both schools have devoted fans and as we all should have learned in Econ 54 (with Dr. Kim for whom pronouncing English words was a huge challenge) an increase in demand with a fixed supply will results in higher prices. As noted byCollege Football: Penn State Vs. Notre Dame the Top of the Five Hottest Games This Season the Irish sell tickets which gives them the leverage to get a bigger slice of the pie than they should. See Sexy and Greedy and Too Sexy for Their Own Good

Getting back to the TicketCity.com issue, there is one lingering question, "Can you get a picture of the sucker that pays $1100 for those tickets?"

Two other interesting articles

Right on schedule?--Twelfth game complicating nonconference matchups

Seattle Seahawks to Fans: Please Watch Other NFL Games you just got to love the mixture of technology with commerce.

Wag the Pigskin

In the movie Wag the Dog the White House hires a movie director to cook up a fake war to distract the electorate from a presidential sex scandal. Staying away from any direct references to the Clinton presidency, this tactic of distracting people from the real problem is as old as mankind. Big Ten Commissioner Jim Delany may not have the problem of a sex scandal but starting off the year with his embarrassing rant about the SEC and now the possibility that the BTN is going to fall short of expectations now is the perfectly suspious time to distract the Big Ten and college football public by talking vaguely about expansion.

What is the purpose of bring up the subject in a public forum? Does Mr. Delany need to let the rest of the college football world that his office might be calling? NO! Does Mr. Delany need the media to communicate this to the AD’s within the Big Ten? NO! Has muffled the questions about the success of the BTN? YES!

Given that Mr. Delany is still under the delusion that his ATM called the BTN will be success, the objective here is to look for the most TV sets not a championship game (ask the SEC, Big 12, and ACC about how that has been a positive for their teams) and that leads anyone with even basic understand of U.S. demographics to the New York City metro area and the 7,366,950 television sets. The Big Apple is not an easy market to crack, ask the NFL Channel or even the YES. Given the competition from no less that nine pro teams in the market a Mid-West college football game might be a difficult sell. And the sledding won’t be much easier elsewhere as the Big Ten is a strong regional brand but not an overwhelming force on the national stage.

Mr. Delany might want to take an old piece of advice, “The quieter you are, the smarter you sound.”

Keeping up with the war of words on the BTN, Comcast,Big Ten continue cold war Had a great quote from Mr. Siverman,"… I never anticipated having the larger deals done in July. But I did expect to be having some productive conversations on how to make it work as opposed to cable operators staking out such a drastic tier-or-nothing stance." Which means take our very reasonable idea of basic cable or nothing.

Mr. Silverman see the advice above for Mr. Delany.

Media Helper

The either the PR personnel from the Big East are very good in communicating their message or the journalists covering the recent media event in Newport, Rhode Island were too busy taking in the sights, eating shrimp, and brown nosing to do anything more than publish the prefab party line. To be fair it is called Media Day and there is no illusion that the purpose is anything more than publicity for the upcoming season. The reports try to take the same material and dress it up in different manners but what you get is just the journalistic equivalent of Hamburger Helper.

Look for yourself at the following articles filed for the recent Big East Media Day and see if there is much of a difference.

Big East football has never been better

Big East believes it's better than Cinderella

Big East Beasts Are Back

Big East bursting with pride--League talking national title


The key talking points were:

Great 2006 season

When the final AP rankings came out, Louisville (No. 6), West Virginia (No. 10) and Rutgers (No. 12) were ahead of Miami and Virginia Tech, the two former Big East powers whose departure to the Atlantic Coast Conference after the 2003 season nearly killed the league.
Big East bursting with pride--League talking national title

Heisman Talk

Brohm could have skipped his senior season and been a first-round NFL draft pick after throwing for 3,049 yards last season.

Slaton and White are the twin jet engines in the most dynamic running game in the country. With White at quarterback and Slaton at tailback, Rodriguez's spread offense averaged 303 yards rushing per game.
Big East bursting with pride--League talking national title

Back from the brink of death
That season, the league was struggling to regroup after the defections of Miami, Virginia Tech and, ultimately, Boston College. There were no trophies on the dais, not many smiles and not much media attention.
Big East believes it's better than Cinderella

The one exception is the article from this commonality was Big East football looks to continue 2006 success By Ray Parrillo (with the differnce pointed out by http://thewizardofodds.blogspot.com/). Mr. Parrillo points out is:

"What Rutgers did was really raise the awareness of college football in New York," Tranghese said. "College football has had a difficult time getting [good ratings] in New York. But if you look at the numbers in New York, you're startled by how good they are.

Rutgers' 28-25 win over Louisville on Nov. 9, a Thursday night, had the highest average rating for a college sporting event in the New York market since ESPN began rating them in 2000."

If Rutgers can continue their recent success and deliver T.V. ratings from Gotham, the Big East will find itself a very hot property.

On second thought maybe the Big East PR people need a swift kick. As they mostly failed in getting the important message out that Big East football delivers ratings.